This Weekend in College Football: Week 13

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Missouri @ Oklahoma (ABC): This looked like a cracker of a matchup a couple months ago, but with Mizzou’s quarterback situation so unsettled I’m not sure how they’re going to prevail against a Brent Veneables defense.
  • Rutgers @ Ohio State (FOX): We’ll finally have something to talk about with Ohio State next week, at least.
  • Miami @ Virginia Tech (ESPN): The Hokies are giving the ol’ college try, and maybe they’ll be excited to have new head coach James Franklin in the house. But I don’t think Miami will particularly care about any of that.
  • Louisville @ Southern Methodist (ESPN2): Louisville has fallen off a bit from their high point, which means it’s probably time to upset an ACC contender again.
  • Kansas @ Iowa State (FS1): A bit of a lost season for both teams, I like the ‘Clones I guess.
  • Minnesota @ Northwestern (@Chicago, IL; BTN): Northwestern is 0-fer at Wrigley Field the past two seasons, and I’m not sure why it’d change here.
  • Harvard @ Yale (“The Game”; ESPNU)
  • Delaware @ Wake Forest (ACCN): Wake all the way here.
  • Tulsa @ Army (CBSS): Army all the way here.
  • Samford @ Texas A&M (SECN+)

12:45: Charlotte @ Georgia (SECN)

1:00:

  • Baylor @ Arizona (TNT): In more Big 12 teams suffering disappointing seasons, it’d been a weird one for both of these teams. I sorta like Zona.
  • Washington State @ James Madison (ESPN+)
  • Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern (ESPN+)

2:00:

  • Nevada @ Wyoming (MWN)
  • Mercer @ Auburn (SECN+)
  • Eastern Illinois @ Alabama (SECN+)
  • Ball State @ Toledo (ESPN+)
  • Missouri State @ Kennesaw State (ESPN+)

2:30: Marshall @ Appalachian State (ESPN+)

3:00:

  • Liberty @ Louisiana Tech (ESPN+)
  • New Mexico State @ Texas-El Paso (“Battle of I-10”; ESPN+)
  • Sam Houston State @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPN+)
  • Connecticut @ Florida Atlantic (ESPN+)
  • South Florida @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Arkansas @ Texas (ABC): Texas is having a weird year, but it’s not weird enough to lose to Arkansas at home.
  • Southern California @ Oregon (CBS): One of the two biggest games of the day is in Eugene, OR. USC tries to prove they’re “for real” against the best team they’ve played outside of Notre Dame. Oregon needs to stay at 1 loss for many purposes, including potentially hosting a playoff game and, in the worst case scenario, playing in the playoff at all. USC gives themselves an outside chance at a playoff spot with a win. So there’s a lot on the line. For my money, I think the Ducks are still more talented and a little more tested.
  • Syracuse @ Notre Dame (NBC): Notre Dame’s romp through their schedule figures to continue unabated.
  • Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (ESPN): This is a bit of a trap game for Vanderbilt (let’s marvel that we can talk about Vandy having trap games instead of being the trap game). Kentucky remains feisty as ever, winners of three straight and with a couple of scares on the schedule. This is not a gimme for Vandy, but they’re definitely still the favorite.
  • Michigan State @ Iowa (FS1): A rudderless Michigan State doesn’t stand a chance in Iowa City.
  • Duke @ North Carolina (ACCN): Duke arrives losers of two straight, one of which was to UConn. UNC has, believe it or not, gotten better. Yeah they lost to Wake last week, but that’s still understandable. Duke is still a better team here, but I won’t be surprised if Carolina at least finds themselves in a position to win.
  • Jacksonville State @ Florida International (CBSS): FIU is going to lose this game, but can we bring back the “Sundowner” branding permanently? Thanks.
  • East Carolina @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPN+)
  • Southern Mississippi @ South Alabama (ESPN+)

3:45: Tulane @ Temple (ESPNU): As noted elsewhere, most of the American contenders don’t play each other, but they all play Temple. Weird. Anyway, assuming that was intentional, Tulane should be fine here.

4:00:

  • Texas Christian @ Houston (FOX): Houston is kind of quietly having a very good season, outside of the weird loss to West Virginia. TCU hasn’t been able to do much of anything, so outside of another WVU-esque effort, the Cougs should be fine.
  • Kansas State @ Utah (ESPN2): K-State normally is the kind of team that can hang physically with just about anyone, but there really seem to be three tiers in the Big 12 this season. In the first tier, it’s Texas Tech. In the second, it’s BYU and Utah. And then… it’s everyone else. So the Utes will be fine here.
  • Michigan @ Maryland (BTN): What’s going on in College Park is just sad at this point. It’s hard to see how they’re going to be able to arrest the slide and avoid turning 4-0 into 4-8.
  • Oklahoma State @ Central Florida (ESPN+)
  • Georgia State @ Troy (ESPN+)

4:15: Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina (SECN): Gamecocks will be fine here.

4:30: Furman @ Clemson (The CW)

5:00: Louisiana-Monroe @ Texas State (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Nebraska @ Pennsylvania State (NBC): The thing about Penn State is that they’re still, you know, pretty talented. Last week, they were able to arrest the slide and easily handle Michigan State. Nebraska is better than the Spartans, and they did bring reality back to UCLA in their last game. It’ll be Senior Day in Happy Valley, and they’re good enough to win on paper. I expect it to happen.
  • Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): I’m not sure I remember the last time I was this wound up for a regular season game that wasn’t against you know who. Pitt comes in with a sensational new quarterback and defense that is stout as usual. We have got to take advantage of a sell-out crowd at home (and as a reminder, it’s the last true home game since next week is at the Benz) and have the defense figure out a way to get off the field on third downs. Do that, let the offense do their thing, and get this done.
  • Colorado State @ Boise State (FS1): I hear you about your concerns regarding Boise State’s offense (14 points the past two weeks), but I cannot in good conscience pick them to lose against this Colorado State team.
  • New Mexico @ Air Force (CBSS): New Mexico is kinda good. Air Force is not.

7:30:

  • Tennessee @ Florida (ABC): Tennessee hasn’t won in the Swamp since 2005. I think it’s about time.
  • North Texas @ Rice (ESPNU): Rice could drag North Texas down with them, but I’m not going to pick that to happen.
  • Illinois @ Wisconsin (BTN): Wisconsin followed up their sloppy, surprise upset of Washington with… well, they got what Indiana does to almost everyone. I don’t expect much different here.
  • California @ Stanford (“The Big Game”; ACCN): Cal has possibly the most exciting quarterback in the ACC, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (better known as just JKS). Note that I said exciting and not things like “consistent” or “one of the best”. JKS and his team perhaps embody “All Coastal Chaos” more than any other team. They inflated Virginia’s resume, but then burst Louisville’s bubble. They got shut out by San Diego State. Stanford beat a snakebit Florida State team, and, well, doesn’t really have much else to show for it. It’s a rivalry game, so there’s still stakes, but it’s hard to see a way for Stanford to win here.

7:45: Western Kentucky @ Louisiana State (SECN): LSU will be fine here.

8:00:

  • Brigham Young @ Cincinnati (FOX): I don’t like Cincy’s chances here, but they should offer slightly more resistance than many of BYU’s opponents so far.
  • Arizona State @ Colorado (ESPN2): The Buffs are, as the kids would say, cooked.

10:30:

  • Washington @ California-Los Angeles (NBC): Reality has set in again for UCLA. I think the Huskies will be fine, as long as they don’t get caught looking forward to Oregon next week.
  • San Jose State @ San Diego State (FS1): Aztecs will be fine here.
  • Utah State @ Fresno State (CBSS): Fresno will be fine here.

Bowl Games 2025: Week 3

I don’t have a lot to note here except I that I really hope the “5 SEC teams in the playoff” thing doesn’t come to pass. Based on my projections, I have Texas A&M playing Alabama in the SEC title game. I’d have to think that the only thing that would knock Bama out in that scenario is just getting completely walloped by the Aggies.

So… let’s hope for something weird next weekend in Jordan-Hare Stadium?

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh (ABC): It’s the biggest game in a minute for Pitt, a team looking to top the ACC and shore-up their play-off bona fides. That said, while I can see the superweapon firing once again or just Pitt dragging the Irish down to their level, there’s stakes for them as well. Another loss takes Notre Dame out of the playoff, whereas right now with 2-losses they’re probably in. I expect them to see it through.
  • Michigan @ Northwestern (@Chicago, IL; FOX): Northwestern, like conference-mate Purdue, isn’t as bad as we all thought they’d be, but there’s no way they win this game, right?
  • South Carolina @ Texas A&M (ESPN): The Gamecocks have been a little snakebit this year, and this game doesn’t figure to change that.
  • South Florida @ Navy (ESPN2): The Midshipmen had a great start to the season, but when the competition got real, the good vibes ended: they’ve lost two straight and this figures to make it three.
  • Arizona @ Cincinnati (FS1): Zona has the profile of the teams that Cincy has beat this year (read: as in, the opposite of the teams they’ve lost to, Nebraska and Utah), so I like them here.
  • Wisconsin @ Indiana (BTN): The Hoosiers don’t figure to need any late-game heroics in this one.
  • Kansas State @ Oklahoma State (ESPNU): It’s not that Oklahoma State is 1-8, it’s how they’re 1-8. Their sole victory is over a middling FCS team. Against FBS competition, their closest margin was the 19-12 loss to Tulsa. The next closest is their most recent, a 17 point loss to Kansas. Everything else is a blowout. That doesn’t figure to change here.
  • Air Force @ Connecticut (CBSS): Don’t look, but the Huskies are 7-3, beat Duke last week, and figure to be 9-3 by the end of the season. This team isn’t bad, that’s for sure.
  • Eastern Michigan @ Ball State (ESPN+)
  • Texas-San Antonio @ Charlotte (ESPN+)

1:30: Tennessee Tech @ Kentucky (SECN+)

2:00:

  • Marshall @ Georgia State (ESPN+)
  • North Texas @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)

3:00:

  • Colorado State @ New Mexico (MWN)
  • Texas-El Paso @ Missouri State (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Oklahoma @ Alabama (ABC): In the first of two playoff elimination games in the SEC, we’ve got the Sooners making their second ever visit to Bryant-Denny Stadium. Honestly, by all rights Bama should lose this game. The Tide are bizarrely inconsistent and it figures if anyone really can stuff their offense, it’ll be Brent Venables and company. I like OU straight up.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Michigan State (CBS): The Land Grant Trophy (aka, the greatest ugly trophy in sports) is back up for grabs after taking a break last year. This feels like a bit of a last chance for Penn State to get one, with the Spartans having their own struggles and turmoil. I like the Nittany Lions here.
  • Central Florida @ Texas Tech (FOX): The Texas Tech steamroller figures to continue unabated.
  • North Carolina State @ Miami (ESPN): NC State also took a week off after beating us, and now there’s two forces at play. First, for the Canes, to stay even remotely relevant they need to take care of business against the rest of their schedule. Then there’s the forces that propel Dave Doren to 8-4 each season, which would require them to win all of their remaining games. Which force will prevail? I like Miami but let’s face it, anything can happen in this one.
  • Virginia @ Duke (ESPN2): I hate to admit it, but the whole “4-loss Duke makes the playoff” thing is unfortunately feasible. This is also after I finally allowed that they might be good, which they took and then promptly lost to UConn. They’re probably going to win here, as UVA is heading in the wrong direction and their starting quarterback is out.
  • Maryland @ Illinois (FS1): Maryland is, as the kids would say, “cooked”.
  • Iowa @ Southern California (BTN): So USC has just sort of hung around. They beat Michigan  but lost to the only other decent teams they’ve played, but they’re a 7-2 Power 2 team, so they’re going to start getting some chatter. That seems like the exact situation the Hawkeyes are built to completely shut down.
  • Georgia Tech @ Boston College (ACCN): So… here we go again. Road game, one of the most hapless teams on our schedule, and still everything to play for. Out of the bye week, what I need to see is better, more consistent execution on offense, and just any sort of ability for our defense to get off the field. NC State had 10 drives two weeks ago, and scored on all but three of them (a punt and fumble in the second quarter, and then a punt with game out of reach at the end). Once again, just take care of business, and then get back to Atlanta. That’s all I ask.
  • San Jose State @ Nevada (CBSS): The Wolf Pack are one of the worst teams in FBS, SJSU will be fine here.
  • Middle Tennessee State @ Western Kentucky (ESPN+)
  • Appalachian State @ James Madison (ESPN+)
  • South Alabama @ Louisiana-Monroe (ESPN+)
  • Texas State @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Memphis @ East Carolina (ESPNU): ECU is feisty, and as the Tigers already demonstrated, they can get got (see: the UAB game). It seems a given the American will get the seat at the table for the G5 in the playoff, but that means contenders like Memphis need to take care of business down the stretch and be in the mix at the end.
  • Florida Atlantic @ Tulane (ESPN+)

4:15: New Mexico State @ Tennessee (SECN): The Vols will be fine here.

4:30: North Carolina @ Wake Forest (The CW): Don’t look, but the fightin’ Bill Belichicks have won two straight. I think Wake is good enough to still take care of business, but this is no longer an automatic W.

5:00: Liberty @ Florida International (ESPN+)

6:00: Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Florida @ Mississippi (ESPN): Ole Miss has been rolling outside of that one blip in Athens, GA. It seems like they’ve got things under control and cruising to a playoff spot. But that said, the Gators are just a bit too talented, and if for some reason history repeats itself in terms of the “bad November loss just when it seems like Lane is going to finally get out of Oxford”, this is certainly a candidate. Oh, and they lost to Florida last year in a similar spot.
  • Utah @ Baylor (ESPN2): I don’t think Utah will get tripped up here, but Baylor and Dave Aranda are in a bit of a bad spot and they need a win, bad.
  • Purdue @ Washington (FS1): Purdue: better than expected, but… and yeah I know Washington messed around and lost to Wisconsin last week. It be a shock if the Boilermakers win, but it may be a slight surprise.
  • Utah State @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSS): I like UNLV slightly here, but this is going to be a tough out.
  • Delaware @ Sam Houston State (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Texas @ Georgia (ABC): Here’s the other SEC Elimination Game, and this time I like the home team. Texas has more than a puncher’s chance, of course, especially if Arch really is getting better. Georgia can definitely be got by creative offensive playcalling (see: the first halves of their last two games against Alabama).
  • California-Los Angeles @ Ohio State (NBC): There’s not much of a reason to think this one will be interesting.
  • Virginia Tech @ Florida State (ACCN): If FSU can’t win this one, then I just don’t know anymore.

7:45: Mississippi State @ Missouri (SECN): Mizzou started out 5-0, and now has lost 3 of their last 4 as they got into the part of the schedule that featured opponents with pulses. What makes this tough is that while the Bulldogs aren’t very good, they’re also better than their record. I think Mizzou guts this one out, but anything could happen.

8:00: Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State (ESPNU): This is a Conference USA banger. Both teams are 5-0 in the league, but with one crucial difference: Kennesaw has been pouding folks. They have a +71 point differential in conference play. They could definitely lose this game, but I like the Owls.

10:00: Louisiana Tech @ Washington State (The CW): I just feel so bad for Wazzu and Oregon State. The Cougs should win this one at least.

10:15: Texas Christian @ Brigham Young (ESPN): TCU isn’t bad, I just like BYU here.

10:30:

  • Wyoming @ Fresno State (FS1): Who even knows about the Mountain West anymore, y’all. Well, other than that Hawaii is that good, I guess. I guess it’ll be Fresno here?
  • Boise State @ San Diego State (CBSS): SDSU, a team pretty much cruising through conference play, went on vacation last week, apparently, as they got absolutely smoked 38-6 by Hawaii. Boise, of course, lost 30-7 to Fresno a couple weeks ago. So coming into this game… flip a coin. I’ll guess Aztecs.
  • California-Davis @ Montana State (ESPN2)

Bowl Games 2025: Week 2

The bowl predictions page has been updated.

Once again, we’re six teams short, so I had to use both the transitioning schools (Delaware and Missouri State) and four 5-7 teams (in order: Northwestern, Auburn, Rice, and Central Florida). Once again, since I predict the games out using SP+, there is a potential that any team I have projected to finish 5-7 finds one more upset and qualifies normally. For example, Mississippi State is projected to lose out to Missouri and Mississippi, but they’re about a 10 point underdog to Mizzou, which is well within the realm of possibility. (And the Egg Bowl is, of course, the Egg Bowl.)

We’ll get more clarity when the newest CFP rankings are released tomorrow. The main question is if they will put in a three loss Alabama: I have the Tide losing to Oklahoma and Texas A&M in the SEC Championship Game. At some point, that loss to Florida State has to come home to roost, right? For now I have Utah as the last at-large bid to the playoff.

The other point of contention is going to be the status of the ACC champion. As the joke goes, when the ACC killed divisions (and therefore the notoriously volatile Coastal division), they just made everything Coastal. If everything goes to my projections, the Virginia will finish with one conference loss and Louisville would win the tiebreakers between the two-loss ACC teams (which in addition to the Cards I have as Miami, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Southern Methodist, and Duke). This prevent the nightmare scenario of a 7-5 Duke making it to, and winning, the ACC Championship Game, in which case the ACC would probably miss the playoff entirely.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Brigham Young @ Texas Tech (ABC): This is the game of the year in the Big 12, so naturally it kicks off at 11am local time. Expect these two to meet again, though.  For now, I like the Red Raiders at home.
  • Indiana @ Pennsylvania State (FOX): I expect Indiana to continue to do Indiana things here.
  • Georgia @ Mississippi State (ESPN): I expect Georgia to continue to do Georgia things here.
  • James Madison @ Marshall (ESPN2): JMU.
  • Colorado @ West Virginia (TNT): WVU.
  • Southern Mississippi @ Arkansas State (ESPNU): Southern Miss is… back apparently? I like them here at least.
  • Southern Methodist @ Boston College (ACCN): Ponies.
  • Temple @ Army (CBSS): Army?

1:00:

  • Ohio State @ Purdue (BTN): Purdue is better than anyone expected… but they’re probably still going to go 0-fer in the Big Ten. C’est la vie.
  • The Citadel @ Mississippi (SECN+)
  • Bowling Green @ Eastern Michigan (ESPN+)
  • Missouri State @ Liberty (ESPN+)

2:30: Maryland @ Rutgers (FS1): Maryland’s slow-moving collapse figures to continue.

3:00:

  • Florida International @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPN+)
  • Jacksonville State @ Texas-El Paso (ESPN+)
  • Tulsa @ Florida Atlantic (ESPN+)
  • Charlotte @ East Carolina (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana Tech @ Delaware (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Texas A&M @ Missouri (ABC): Mizzou is good, but clearly a step below the SEC elite this season. Which means I isn’t like their chances here.
  • Oregon @ Iowa (CBS): Iowa will do everything they can to drag the Ducks into the mud. I think they’ll be able to figure it out but I won’t be surprised if the Hawkeyes notch their best B1G win in a while here.
  • Iowa State @ Texas Christian (FOX): TCU?
  • Syracuse @ Miami (ESPN): I don’t even know what to say about the Canes at this point, well, other than I don’t think they’ll lose here.
  • Kansas @ Arizona (ESPN2): Zona?
  • Duke @ Connecticut (CBSS): [insert basketball season joke here] Duke all the way here.

4:00:

  • Auburn @ Vanderbilt (SECN): Hugh Freeze won’t lose to Diego Pavia for the fourth year in a row because he got fired on Sunday.
  • Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina (ESPN+)
  • Kennesaw State @ New Mexico State (ESPN+)

4:30:

  • Stanford @ North Carolina (The CW): Bill figures to get his second ACC win.
  • Washington @ Wisconsin (BTN): It’s so dire in Camp Randall right now, and they announced this week that they’ll retain Luke Fickell. UDub should win easily in front of this dis-spirited team and crowd.
  • Texas State @ Louisiana (ESPN+)

6:00: Air Force @ San Jose State (FS1): Spartans.

7:00:

  • Wake Forest @ Virginia (ESPN): Now that we finally got got, UVA is now the ACC’s most “getting away with it team”. Wake is good enough to get them, and I think they will.
  • California @ Louisville (ESPN2): Louisville, ACC standard bearer? It’s more likely than you think.
  • Florida State @ Clemson (ACCN): It’s insult to injury that the two most dominant ACC teams from like 2014 to 2022 are afterthoughts on the ACC Network. Both of these teams need to really do some deep introspection in the off-season. As for this game, Clemson I guess?

7:30:

  • Louisiana State @ Alabama (ABC): Bama all the way here.
  • Navy @ Notre Dame (NBC): It’s a classic rivalry, but Navy doesn’t stand a chance.
  • Florida @ Kentucky (SECN): This game, oh my god. Florida will win. Outside of that, literally anything could happen.
  • Nevada @ Utah State (CBSS):. Aggies.

9:00: Nebraska @ California-Los Angeles (FOX): Huskers?

9:30: Nevada-Las Vegas @ Colorado State (FS1): UNLV.

10:00: Sam Houston State @ Oregon State (The CW): I think the Beavers have this one.

11:00: San Diego State @ Hawaii (Spectrum)