This Weekend in College Football: Week 15

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As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday

7:00:

  • Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State (Conference USA Championship Game; CBSS): The primetime action gets started with a surprising season by the Owls. They’re genuinely good, but one of the revisit the site of one of their defeats a month ago. The conventional wisdom is that “it’s hard to beat a team twice”, which, yes, but I still like the Jacksonville (Alabama) State to do it again.
  • Troy @ James Madison (Sun Belt Conference Championship Game; ESPN): This is easily the biggest mismatch of any of the champ games, and anything other than a JMU blowout would be a shocking result.

8:00:

  • North Texas @ Tulane (American Conference Championship Game; ABC): North Texas has one of the most prolific offenses in FBS. I don’t think that the Green Wave can move the ball well enough to keep up.
  • Nevada-Las Vegas @ Boise State (Mountain West Conference Championship Game; FOX): About the only advantage for Boise here is the game being in Boise. Otherwise, I think UNLV is an all around better team. They took care of business last week in Reno, so I don’t think cold conditions will bother the Runnin’ Rebels too much.

Saturday

Noon:

  • Brigham Young vs. Texas Tech (Big 12 Conference Championship Game @ Arlington, TX; ABC): BYU is good enough to prevent this from being a complete mismatch, and again, it’s hard to beat the same team twice. But the way Texas Tech has been beating everyone, including BYU this first time around, makes me think it won’t be much of an issue for the Red Raiders.
  • Miami vs. Western Michigan (Mid-American Conference Championship @ Detroit, MI; ESPN): Yet another rematch! That said, unlike most of the other ones, the team that lost last time is the favorite: WMU blew a 17-9 lead on the road to lose 26-17 back in October. Unfortunately for the Redhawks, they proceeded to lose their next two MAC contents to contenders Ohio and Toledo, while WMU finished out the rest of the MAC slate unblemished. This one is effectively a coin flip to me, but I’ll follow the odds and slightly prefer WMU.
  • South Dakota @ Mercer (NCAA Division I Second Round; ESPN+)
  • Villanova @ Lehigh (NCAA Division I Second Round; ESPN+)

1:00:

  • North Dakota @ Tarleton State (NCAA Division I Second Round; ESPN+)
  • Illinois State @ North Dakota State (NCAA Division I Second Round; ESPN+)
  • Abilene Christian @ Stephen F. Austin (NCAA Division I Second Round; ESPN+)

2:00:

  • Prairie View A&M @ Jackson State (Southwestern Athletic Conference Championship Game; ESPN2)
  • Yale @ Montana State (NCAA Division I Second Round; ESPN+)
  • South Dakota State @ Montana (NCAA Division I Second Round; ESPN+)

3:00: Rhode Island @ California-Davis (NCAA Division I Second Round; ESPN+)

4:00: Georgia vs. Alabama (Southeastern Conference Championship Game @ Atlanta, GA; ABC): Finally, a game where it might actually be difficult to beat the same team twice. Especially given how Bama has beaten Georgia the past few years, which follows the same script: come out with something the Georgia defense hasn’t seen before, build a lead off of that, and then hold on for dear life. I don’t think that’s a formula that will allow the Tide to stave them off once again. On the Georgia side, there’s a lot of folks worried about their offense after we held them to season lows in points and yards last week. I assure you: don’t worry. Georgia had a very conservative, vanilla gameplan and really took their foot off the gas after getting up 10-3. Would they have preferred to score a couple more touchdowns? Sure. But they knew they didn’t need to. A great example is at the end of the game when they punted the ball back to us instead converting a 4th and short for the win. I will bet you if that situation arises in this game, Georgia goes for the win. That said, I think the main thing that will be interesting about this game is how Bama loses, especially if they lose in a way that puts their playoff status in jeopardy.

8:00:

  • Virginia vs. Duke (Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game @ Charlotte, NC; ABC): Among all of the other dumb things about this, naturally of the teams in the jumbled mess at the top of the ACC is that these two actually did play each other in the regular season. The result? Virginia won handily. As I’ve said many times in this post, it’s hard to beat a team twice, and this is going to be on a neutral field. I still like the Hoos here.
  • Indiana vs. Ohio State (Big Ten Conference Championship Game @ Indianapolis, IN; FOX): Finally, the game of the century of the day. Ohio State finally makes it back to Indy, and Indiana, well, this is just unprecedented. Ohio State’s defense will finally face a team that will make them work. (Speaking of great examples from last week: Ohio State thought so little of Michigan’s offense that they declined a holding penalty to make it 3rd and 5 around midfield instead of 2nd and 15.) Indiana is definitely going to get theirs., I believe this is a game much more likely to be about who fails to hold serve than anything else. Indiana has blown out basically everyone, but their defense is largely untested. This gives the Buckeyes a slight edge, but again, I think this is really anyone’s game. This feels like it’s going to be must-see TV.

 

Bowl Predictions 2025: Week 5

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They’re updated right here.

Let’s hit the highlights.

  • First, yeah, there’s still 5 SEC teams. Unfortunately, the relatively chalky rivalry weekend didn’t shake things up too much. The one upset that did happen, Texas over Texas A&M, likely cost the Aggies a first round bye, as their ticket to a bye with their schedule was to suffer their only loss in the SEC Championship Game.
  • Speaking of the SEC Championship Game, the SEC team now likely on the shakiest ground is Alabama. I personally believe that a loss to Georgia (a team they beat in the regular season) probably won’t get them knocked out… unless BYU upsets Texas Tech, which would get a second Big 12 team into the field. And if Bama beats Georgia again? Well, that sounds like a problem for next weekend.
  • Oh, yeah, the ACC thing. I… honestly have no idea what will happen if Duke upsets Virginia Saturday. The main that needs to happen immediately is for the ACC and other conferences to fix their tiebreakers to prevent a 5-loss team from getting into the conference title game. The next thing is that the conferences are simply too large. One of the main issues with the tiebreakers as-is is the lack of connectivity between many teams. The ACC is the most obvious case this season, but the SEC, American, and Mountain West also had issues. The SEC actually got to the same tiebreaker as the ACC, it’s just less egregious (because they’re picking between 1-loss teams), but there’s definitely an argument to be made that Alabama probably shouldn’t be there.
  • Speaking of the Tide, remember when they lost to Florida State? Y’all, we play a 12 game season, and all the games have to count. I’m not sure this will actually come up, but it probably should, especially if Georgia thoroughly handles the Tide in Atlanta.
  • Speaking of SEC teams that lost games to bad Florida teams, Texas is not making the playoff. They are behind, in no particular order: 3-loss Bama, 2-loss BYU, Miami, and Vanderbilt. It’s not happening.
  • Outside of the playoff, we have enough teams! Well, sort of: we’re technically two short, but fortunately both of the FCS to FBS transition teams in Conference USA (Missouri State and Delaware) are 6-6 or better.

From this point forward, the predictions page is a bit of a living document: I won’t necessarily create a new post when it updates, but I will update if I hear any particular news about bowl destinations. Some wild cards include: there not being enough SEC teams, which American teams that just lost their coaches will still get called up to better bowls, where the service academies (which still play another game next week) will go, and where UConn will go. In addition, I have two extra “Pac-12” in Cal and Washington State, and I’m not entirely sure what will happen to them. Again, the page will update if I find anything out.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 14

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As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Miami @ Pittsburgh (ABC): Okay, so Miami is going to win this game… unless the Pitt Superweapon has heretofore unknown multi-week properties. This is mostly because when Pat Narduzzi said he didn’t care if Pitt lost 100-0 to Notre Dame as long as they won the next two games, he apparently really meant it. We’ll see what happens, provided we’re not all too busy paying attention to the next game on this list.
  • Ohio State @ Michigan (“The Game”; FOX): You have probably heard, but just in case you haven’t: Michigan has won four in a row in this rivalry. The most galling example was last year’s, where an unranked Michigan won 13-10. Sure, Ohio State certainly had bigger goals in mind (they did, after all, win a national title), but it still sure seemed like that Ryan Day and company seemed to think the best way to beat Michigan was… to play down them. So, in a similiar sentiment to last year’s post, Ohio State is going to win, but it’ll be very funny if they once again come up short.
  • Texas Tech @ West Virginia (ESPN): I don’t see anyway that WVU can slow down Texas Tech.
  • Colorado @ Kansas State (FS1): Here’s the scores in each of Colorado’s last four games, all losses: 53-7, 52-17, 29-22, 42-17.
  • Houston @ Baylor (TNT): It’s probably not great for either of these teams that I still have no idea what to make of either… at the end of the regular season. Baylor seems worryingly close to the “q-word”, which makes me lean Houston, but still.
  • Iowa State @ Oklahoma State (ESPNU): Cyclones all the way here.
  • Ball State @ Miami (CBSS): I’ll take Miami here.
  • Clemson @ South Carolina (“Palmetto Bowl”; SECN): Either this will be the end-cap to an extremely disappointing season for the Gamecocks, or it’ll make the whole thing worth it. I suspect the former.
  • Kentucky @ Louisville (“Governor’s Cup”; ACCN): I still think Louisville is at least a half-decent team, which usually means the beef it in this rivalry.
  • Toledo @ Central Michigan (ESPN+)
  • East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic (ESPN+)
  • Central Connecticut @ Rhode Island (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)
  • Harvard @ Villanova (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)
  • Yale @ Youngstown State (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)

1:00:

  • Central Florida @ Brigham Young (ESPN2): BYU will hit UCF early and often, cementing an extremely disappointing homecoming for Scott Frost that will leave the Knights with more questions than answers.
  • Texas-El Paso @ Delaware (ESPN+)
  • Florida International @ Sam Houston State (ESPN+)
  • Lamar @ Abilene Christian (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)
  • Drake @ South Dakota (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)
  • New Hampshire @ South Dakota State (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)
  • Illinois State @ Southeastern Louisiana (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)
  • North Dakota @ Tennessee Tech (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)

1:30: Georgia Southern @ Marshall (ESPN+)

2:00:

  • Georgia State @ Old Dominion (ESPN+)
  • Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana Tech @ Missouri State (ESPN+)
  • Southern vs. Grambling State (Bayou Classic @ New Orleans, LA; NBC)

2:30: Arkansas State @ Appalachian State (ESPN+)

3:00:

  • Boston College @ Syracuse (The CW): This is nominally a rivalry. At any rate, BC has probably their best actual chance at a win against a depleted Syracuse that has lost 7 in a row. I’ll go ahead and make it 8.
  • Middle Tennessee State @ New Mexico State (ESPN+)
  • South Alabama @ Texas State (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Louisiana (“Battle on the Bayou”; ESPN+)
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Tulsa (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Louisiana State @ Oklahoma (ABC): The Sooners figure to put an exclamation point on an excellent season of the ugliest football imaginable. My final score guess is something like 13-6 that’s never in doubt.
  • Oregon @ Washington (CBS): While I still miss their actual in-state rivalries, it’s hard to argue with this one taking the spot. While the Ducks are probably in the playoff regardless of the result, I’d advise them to take care of business against a UDub team that is certainly going to be game at home.
  • Cincinnati @ Texas Christian (FOX): Cincinnati is good, outside of the part where they’ve seemingly lost three in a row, and possibly their mojo. That adds a bit more intrigue to this game that it probably deserves, and TCU is rolling in fresh off an upset of the previously ranked Houston Cougars. I consider this one a coin flip, so let’s go with the Frogs.
  • Vanderbilt @ Tennessee (ESPN): For possibly the first time I can remember in nearly three decades of watching college football, Vandy is the favorite here. It’s not like Vandy has been totally helpless in the past decade. Yes, they’ve lost the last six in a row, but before that they’d won 5 of 7. This isn’t a plucky upstart of a Vanderbilt team, either. That said, I just sort like the Vols at home? I’d love to be wrong, though.
  • Wisconsin @ Minnesota (FS1): Luke Fickell got a tad more than the “dreaded vote of confidence”… and then the Badgers played their best game of the season against Illinois. If Wisconsin can do that again, they can get the axe back. I like their chances.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Rutgers (BTN): Turns out, Penn State is still pretty good. They should roll over Rutgers and make a bowl that seemed pretty unlikely after their crashout.
  • Missouri @ Arkansas (“Battle Line Rivalry”; SECN): Mizzou, by lot.
  • Wake Forest @ Duke (ACCN): Wake, please just end our collective misery of caring about Duke football. That’s all I ask.
  • Kennesaw State @ Liberty (CBSS): Go Owls.
  • Army @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPN+)
  • Troy @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN+)

3:45: James Madison @ Coastal Carolina (ESPNU): I don’t see anything here that will stop JMU’s romp through the Sun Belt.

4:30: Florida State @ Florida (“Sunshine Showdown”; ESPN2): I know this game has been weird the past few years, but I’m not sure there’s been a more juiceless version, as possibly the only way it could’ve had less, er, juice, is if FSU had wound up firing Mike Norvell. As is, FSU probably should win but I won’t be surprised by an result.

6:30: Oregon State @ Washington State (The CW): Wazzu may be one of the most snakebit teams in the country. (I mean, in addition to all of the ways both of these teams got screwed by the latest round of realignment.) The Cougs are 5-6, with what is turning out to be a pretty good win over San Diego State. They also have four losses by 4 points or less, all on the road. In what is the second leg of the Pac-12 Championship, I like them here.

7:00:

  • Virginia Tech @ Virginia (“Commonwealth Cup”; ESPN): The Hokies four-game winning streak in this rivalry figures to end here.
  • Maryland vs. Michigan State (@Detroit, MI; FS1): This is a classic “stoppable force vs. moveable object” game: the Terps have lost seven straight, and the Spartans have lost eight straight. Suffice it to say, I have no clue how to project a winner in this one. I guess Sparty has a slight edge? Woof.
  • Rice @ South Florida (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Alabama @ Auburn (“Iron Bowl”; ABC): Okay, let’s point out all of the things in Auburn’s favor: it’s at night and in Jordan-Hare. Uh… I think that’s about it. And, look, that’s certainly notched some bizarre victories for the Tigers in this game. That said, I can’t really take that and say that the Tigers will be able to overcome all their disadvantages to claim a win for the first time since 2019.
  • Northwestern @ Illinois (FOX): I think Northwestern stands a fair chance in this game, especially since Illinois just let a previously moribund Wisconsin get an easy win. Still picking Illinois, but this could be a good one.
  • California-Los Angeles @ Southern California (NBC): UCLA has lost four straight, and none were particularly close. USC will  make it five straight.
  • Charlotte @ Tulane (ESPNU): Tulane is win-and-in into the American title game, and uh, yeah, they can definitely finish the job here.
  • North Carolina @ North Carolina State (ACCN): Speaking of finishing the job, I think NC State knows what to do here.

8:00: Southern Methodist @ California (ESPN2): SMU isn’t as good as last year, but… they’re 8-3 and 6-1 in the ACC. Cal was so tired of being inconsistent (and losing to inferior Stanford teams) that they finally fired their coach, which isn’t a good omen going into this one. I like the Ponies here.

9:00: Nevada-Las Vegas @ Nevada (“Battle for Nevada”; CBSS): Nevada has reeled off a two game winning streak after spending of the season looking like one of the worst teams in FBS. Not bad, but I’m not sure it’ll matter much here.

10:30:

  • Notre Dame @ Stanford (ESPN): Good on Stanford for getting the axe back, as that might be their best defense against what the Irish are probably going to do to them.
  • Fresno State @ San Jose State (FS1): Has anyone else noticed that San Jose State is kinda bad? Fresno has not been amazing this season, but they figure to win the battle of the valley schools pretty handily.

11:00: Wyoming @ Hawaii (Spectrum): Once again, this is the last full Saturday of the season. I hope you this aloha from Hawaii.

 

This Week in College Football: Week 14

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As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday

4:30: Bowling Green @ Massachusetts (ESPNU): So this game already started, and while UMass is working on making it interesting, let’s talk about something more exciting than whether UMass will go 0-12 or not: this will be the 1000th post on this website! Not bad for something I started right before my final semester of college.

7:30: Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan (ESPN2): WMU has already clinched the Michigan MAC Trophy, so to much is on the line here but pride. WMU’s defense has been one of the stingiest in football this year, and EMU has sort of returned to their historical strugglebus selves. I like the Broncos here.

Thursday

7:30: Navy @ Memphis (ESPN): Memphis has had a bit of a November swoon, but if you’re going to lose two in a row in this conference, you could do worse than losing to Tulane and East Carolina. The Midshipmen have continued to hold their own, and most importantly they still only have a single conference loss, so a win keeps them alive for the American title game.

Friday

Noon:

  • Iowa @ Nebraska (CBS): We start Black Friday action in Omaha, and I don’t really see much of a path for Nebraska to gut one out against Iowa.
  • Mississippi @ Mississippi State (“Egg Bowl”; ABC): The only reason there’s any intrigue in this Egg Bowl at all is because it’s in Starkville. But for the real Egg Bowl shenanigans to happen, we need to get this game back on Thanksgiving night. Otherwise, the intrigue is all off the field for the continued saga of “Where will Lane Kiffin be next season?”
  • Utah @ Kansas (ESPN): Obviously Utah’s rush defense is a bit sus, though it’s still notable that they nearly gave up 500 yards rushing to K-State and… won. I don’t think KU can run it like that, and that the Utes are going to be okay here.
  • Ohio @ Buffalo (ESPNU): Buffalo’s played some of the better MAC teams, but generally has come up short. I expect much the same here.
  • Kent State @ Northern Illinois (CBSS): Kent getting to 5 wins would be something of a good season for a team mostly known for trying to bag as much cash in their OOC schedule as possible. NIU is fleeing the MAC for the Mountain West next year. I’ll pick Kent just because.

3:00: Air Force @ Colorado State (FS1): Colorado State has lost five straight, and I’m going to guess they’ll make it six.

3:30:

  • Georgia vs. Georgia Tech (“Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate” @ Atlanta, GA; ABC): TO HELL WITH GEORGIA
  • Temple @ North Texas (ESPN): The Mean Green boast the meanest offense in the country, and I expect that to hold here against a relatively game Temple.
  • San Diego State @ New Mexico (CBSS): At this point, perhaps the most baffling result on the Aztec’s schedule isn’t the 34-0 win against Cal, but the 36-13 loss to Wazzu and 38-6 loss to Hawaii. I’d expect them to hold down the Lobos similar to the non-Hawaii point totals they’ve allowed in their past six MWC games: 10, 0, 7, 7, and 3.

4:00: Boise State @ Utah State (CBS): Boise seemed to round into shape against Colorado State last week, but the Rams are dreadful and the Utes are, well not. This could be a good, close game. I’ll still lean Boise but this is a coin toss.

7:30:

  • Indiana @ Purdue (NBC): Meanwhile, the only thing that will be competitive in this game is the coin toss. Hoosiers, by a lot.
  • Texas A&M @ Texas (ABC): Maybe the Aggies will stumble a bit in Austin, but Texas just doesn’t seem sharp enough to be able to pull this one off. Also, this really wouldn’t be a chaos result even if the Longhorns win. TAMU is in the playoff regardless, and this would give Texas a boost but I’d think they’d a lot of other results to go their way.

9:00: Arizona @ Arizona State (“Duel in the Desert”; FOX): Out west, the battle for the Territorial Cup seems like a great way to cap off Black Friday. Both teams are coming in hot, but I just like the Sun Devils a bit better, especially at home. But this figures to be a fun one.

Bowl Predictions 2025: Week 4

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A lo, the upsets have happened, so I was only three teams short. Here’s the latest.

It sure looks like we’re going to see five SEC teams in the playoff. What no one really seems to be talking about is the knock-on effect on the SEC’s bowl tie-ins. Obviously, I don’t think the conference itself is too worried about this, but the folks in Nashville, Charlotte, and Memphis might be. There’s multiple tiers of SEC games, roughly summarized as:

  1. the Citrus Bowl
  2. the Texas, Gator, Music City, Reliaquest, Mayo, and Liberty Bowls
  3. the Gasparilla and Birmingham Bowls

I have Texas A&M, Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, and Oklahoma making the playoff. The only other bowl eligible SEC teams I project to have are Texas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, LSU, and Mizzou. So that’s only four teams for the group of 6. My suspicion is that the American’s group of top teams is going to to benefit from this. (Especially Memphis.) And of course, there’s still a chance in the rivalry games this weekend: Kentucky, Auburn, and Miss State can get to 6-6 with wins over their rivals. Stay tuned.